引言：说一下怎么用，就是每个指数都有对应的期权，只要输入当前指数或者股票价格和波动率以及剩余时间，就能够计算出上涨到目标点位的精准概率，这个概率是期权那边场内主力反复交易定价给的。
Calculate the probability of making money in an option trade with this free Excel spreadsheet.
Buying and selling options is risky, and traders need tools to help to gauge the probability of success.
买卖期权是有风险的，交易员需要工具来帮助衡量成功的概率。
Many techniques exist, but the simplest is based upon understanding the math behind a normal distribution curve
存在许多技术，但最简单的是基于对正态分布曲线背后的数学理解
These equations gives the probability of a successful trade for
European put finishing in the money (that is, the probability that the strike price is above the market price at maturity).
欧洲人把肥尾效应放在货币上（也就是说，执行价格在到期时高于市场价格的概率）。
European call finishing in the money (that is, the probability that the strike price is below the market price at maturity)
以货币结算的欧式看涨期权（即执行价格低于到期市场价格的概率）
Probability of a Successful Option Trade
N() is the normal distribution function, and is equivalent to Excel’s NORMSDIST() function
N（）是正态分布函数，相当于Excel的NORMSDIST（）函数
S is the stock price
S是股票价格
X is the strike price
X是执行价格
v is the implied volatility
v是隐含的波动率
T is the time to expiry
T是到期时间这些方程与期权的delta密切相关。交易员经常使用delta来近似期权行权的可能性。Δ由这个方程给出，期权的delta其中r是无风险利率。正如你所看到的，Pcall、Pput和Δ是密切相关的。增量为1表示期权价格与股票价格同步移动。delta为1也意味着期权到期时将在货币中。delta假设股票价格具有对数正态分布。